A political scenario that outgoing Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan and former vice president Jusuf Kalla are trying to avoid is having two pairs of presidential/vice presidential candidates in the 2024 general elections. The main reason is because it will be difficult for Anies to claim himself as a national figure due to the presence of lslamic hardline political party and groups – such as PKS (Prosperous Justice Party), HTI (Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia), FPI (Islam Defenders Front), Wahabi and the 212 Alumni Association – in its ranks. The track record of Anies and his bandwagon regarding identity politics will be exploited by competitors. A two-pair-candidates scenario is acceptable if Anies’ opponent is deemed a weak candidate such as Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P)’s Puan Maharani.
Anies’ political machine
Currently, Anies’ political engine has been heated up. The group’s cyber army allegedly attacks the government and potential rival candidates. The PKS, HTI, FPI, Wahabi and the 212 Alumni Association – which consolidates the votes of Wahabi voters – field forces namely HMI (Association of Islamic Students) and KAMMI (Indonesian Muslim Student Action Union). Both student groups will continue to mobilize students and youth organizations.
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Meanwhile, political lobbyists will try to ensure the nominations by the main coalition party (Nasdem Party-PKS-Democrat Party). Their special targets are the United Development Party (PPP), which is a symbol of Indonesia’s largest Muslim organization the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), and the National Mandate Party (PAN), which represents the second largest Muslim body in the country Muhammadiyah. The lobbyists are also approaching businessmen and the international world through Kalla and Sofjan Wanandi’s business and political network. Sofjan served as Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) chairman from 2008-2013 as well as being active in Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin).
Campaign of failed narratives
Anies’ political positioning is the antithesis of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo instead of being his successor. Successor claims will be taken by rivals so that the available positions are antithetical. For this reason, Jokowi must be narrated as a failure so that the opportunity as an antithesis/substitute will be great. The three failed narratives being campaigned are neglected infrastructure, deteriorating public welfare, corruption and collusion by the oligarchs that are rampant and make debts rise. The opportunity to develop this narrative is considered great because currently the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are still being felt and the world is projected to experience a recession in 2023.
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Facing the deadlock of Anies’ candidacy, Nasdem’s internal faction inaugurated Anies’ nomination. This is expected to accelerate the formation of a coalition with the PKS and the Democratic Party. This effort is also to start early and capitalize various political investments early. The other factions are still considering whether this step is actually counter-productive.
