The big scenario which has been done by trio king maker Jusuf Kalla-Surya Paloh-Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono for the Presidential election in 2024. The trio will make an effort so Ganjar Pranowo will not be nominated by any political coalition, and then Jokowi’s sympathizers will be conditioned as floating masses, then be dragged to a particular political group.
To encourage the three presidential candidates, Kalla has supported Golkar Party chairman Airlangga Hartarto to become a presidential candidate. Paloh, chairman of Nasdem Party, supports the advancement of House of Representatives’ (DPR) Speaker Puan Maharani of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP).
If this bait was taken by the successful team of Hartarto and Maharani, the 2024 elections would become the killing ground for the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB) and PDIP, not only the supporting presidential candidates will lose but the coattail effect will drag down the votes/seats of KIB and PDIP members. This scenario is quite effective for PDIP internally because party elites are competing to approach Megawati Soekarnoputri’s replacement candidate, one of which is Maharani. The most effective way is to continue to support and convince Maharani as a presidential candidate even though her electability and electoral impact are negative. Moreover, Maharani believes that being president is a birthright.
If Hartarto and Maharani are successfully lured to become presidential candidates, the simulations show that they will fall out in the first round. In the second round, outgoing Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan and Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto will compete. Based on the experience in the Jakarta regional election, Baswedan’s success team is confident that it can enlarge a coalition bigger than Subianto. PDIP in the second round is likely to support Subianto. Nationalist voters and Jokowi supporters will be disappointed and possibly abstain. This is the ideal condition that Baswedan’s success team hopes for.
The game will change drastically if Pranowo is nominated by one of the coalitions because he has the potential to garner the votes of Jokowi, nationalists, minorities and customary groups.
Baswedan’s success team prepared a grand coalition from various political spectrum such as Islamic groups, national groups and representatives of minority groups, similar to what SBY did.
Internally, there is still disagreement as to who will be the presidential candidate, Baswedan or Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono. Baswedan relied on Kalla to lobby SBY and compensate for Baswedan’s shortcomings by lobbying the international community and business.
Political attacks on Jokowi will continue to be intensified.The purpose is to make all implemented policies and programs will receive a negative perception so that any presidential candidate who continues Jokowi’s policies and programs does not receive public supports. On the other hand, the presidential candidate can change according to the deal with the oligarchs who have been disadvantaged.
