The coal production target which has been set by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) at 922.14 million tons by the end of 2024 is difficult to achieve in view of various aspects that could affect domestic coal production, an expert says.
Chairman of the Indonesian Mining Experts Association (Perhapi), Rizal Kasli, said that one of the things that affects domestic coal production is the uncertain global economic conditions.
He cited an example of several countries, including China, experiencing low economic conditions.
“For example, China’s growth, which is currently a barometer of coal consumption, is very low at 5 percent,” Rizal told the Mining Zone program, as quoted on Monday, October 28, 2024.
On the other hand, India is also currently aggressively boosting its coal production that will likely have an impact on the country’s import rate.
In addition, according to Rizal, another factor that also affects coal production in Indonesia is the world coal price. “Prices also greatly affect supply and demand globally,” he said.
Similarly, weather also affects the amount of coal production in Indonesia. Currently, several coal-producing areas in Indonesia are experiencing a rainy season that could cause coal production to decline.
“For example, in Aceh, the rainfall is already very high, which disrupts production. And also in other areas, perhaps South Sumatra, which is the second coal barn in Indonesia after Kalimantan. These obstacles, in our opinion, will reduce the amount of production targeted by the government,” Rizal said.
Acting Executive Director of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI), Gita Mahyarani, concurred. Gita said that domestic coal production this year is predicted to be in accordance with the target stated by the government at the beginning of the year, namely 710 million metric tons.
“The target of 710 means that, right? If this is definitely achieved,” Gita said, as quoted from the Indonesian Mining Association website on September 10, 2024.
However, when compared to the RKAB (Work Plan and Cost Budget) target of 922 million metric tons, Gita considered it difficult to achieve. This is reflected in the realization of coal production last year which reached 775.2 million metric tons.
“If calculated from the RKAB of 922 million tons, it seems difficult. The production realization in 2023 will be 775.2 million tons,” Gita cited
The ESDM ministry noted that the realization of Indonesian coal production until October 2024 had reached 657.46 million tons.
Based on data from the ESDM ministry’s Minerba One Map Indonesia (MODI) as of October 28, 2024, the production realization has reached at least 92.60 percent of this year’s production target of 710 million tons.
Meanwhile, from the total production, the contribution to domestic market reached 294.09 million tons, while for the export market it reached 333.59 million tons.
