The House of Representatives’ (DPR) Speaker Puan Maharani – the daughter of Indonesia’s fourth president Megawati Soekarnoputri and Founding Father Sukarno’s granddaughter – is struggling to live up to her family’s expectation in the 2024 presidential election.
Indonesia will hold a simultaneous general elections on February 14, 2024, to elect their representatives at the DPR, the Regional Representatives Council (DPRD) and the president and vice president.
Puan only had a year until her deadline on November 25, 2023, to increase her electability. If she failed to do so, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) will very likely to replace her with Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo. A survey by the Kompas R&D poll on October 26, 2022, revealed Ganjar’s electability of 23.2%. Meanwhile, Puan only earned 1% in the same poll.
Voxpol Center Research and Consulting said in its latest survey released on November 18, 2022, that PDIP would be “thrown out of the competition if it does not carry Ganjar and forces Puan as a presidential candidate”. The pollster said that Puan’s name was always be in the last position if running as a presidential or vice presidential candidate.
Reversed efforts
Puan started her political career during her mother’s presidency in 2001. During Megawati’s three-year tenure, Puan often accompanied her mother on domestic and foreign official visits, in addition to conducting social events by herself. She was assigned to the House’s Commission VI overseeing investments and SMEs in 2009. From her social visits, she began her strategy to mainly approach “wong cilik” (the grassroots).
Despite her role as a House Speaker today, Puan’s electability on several surveys has been outstandingly low. She has made several attempts to increase her electability, such as implementing President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s “blusukan” (impromptu visits) strategy by visiting traditional markets and creating an image that she is a down to earth person. Unfortunately, the public has seen her attempts as merely a publicity stunt instead of an honest gesture. Therefore, she receives a lot of backlashes and critiques instead of praises.
Maintaining party’s domination and dynasty’s relevance
The struggle to continue Sukarno’s political dynasty does not only revolve towards Puan’s presidential candidacy, but also to maintain or increase PDIP’s dominance at the House. PDIP is the only political party with an automatic right to nominate its presidential and vice-presidential candidates, having more than 20% seats at the House. Meanwhile, other parties have to establish alliances to meet the threshold to name their candidates.
As the PDIP matriarch, Megawati has the sole power to name the party’s candidate. However, she has to be very careful in naming a candidate. If she picked the wrong name, Sukarno’s clan might lose their influence in Indonesia’s political map.
Previously, there had been rumors that Megawati had a rift with Jokowi, whom she endorsed as a president. Both leaders, however, met in June 2022 at the State Palace as if to ensure the public that their relationship was doing well. Megawati might learn a lesson from endorsing Jokowi.
Therefore, if she endorsed Ganjar, who has a relatively high electability – compared to two other strong presidential candidates of Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan – she had to be sure that her party may have a higher electability as expected.
In a number of surveys, if PDIP endorses Ganjar, the party’s electability is estimated to reach 26%. However, within PDIP’s internal circle, there had been a fear that a 2014 survey might happen again. The 2014 survey stated that if PDIP nominated Jokowi as a presidential candidate, the party’s electability could reach 30%, but in reality it only gained votes up to 18.95%.
Improving Puan’s image
Puan’s current low electability is not without a cause. She has repeatedly made controversial actions that lead to her low electability and gained criticism from the public. One major case was when she celebrated her birthday inside the House while there was a major students protest outside the compound. The students protested the government’s policy to increase the fuel prices whereas the people has been in hardship as the economy has yet to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.
On the contrary, Ganjar made a smart move by meeting the students protesting in front of the Central Java gubernatorial office as they could not make it to Jakarta. He met and talked to them, showing a gesture that he listened to their aspiration and showed them that he cared.
Puan has to work even harder to improve her image. And Megawati should also prepare to accept the fact that her daughter might be her party’s flaw. She might as well endorse Ganjar before he was sponsored by rivaling political parties.
