The General Elections Commission (KPU) has confirmed the victory of Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka in the 2024 presidential election two days after the Constitutional Court rejected the election dispute lawsuits filed by the other two pairs of presidential-vice presidential candidates. Speculations are rife whether outgoing President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, who is also the father of Gibran, will exert influence on the running of the new government.
Senior Researcher at the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) and an activist at the Prabowo-led Gerindra Party, Tarli Nugroho, has a different analysis on the future relation of Jokowi-Prabowo despite the outgoing president having had significant role in the victory of Prabowo-Gibran in the 2024 election.
Tarli said Prabowo has a different path to presidency than Jokowi. Unlike Jokowi, who took time to learn to be president when he was elected for the first time in the 2014 election, Prabowo, according to Tarli, will not have such a problem because as a then son-in-law of the country’s second president Soeharto, he had been at the center of power for almost 30-40 years.
“Once he is inaugurated as president, Prabowo will immediatly carry out his function and exercise his power as president effectively. So, there is no way that Jokowi will dictate or intervene in Prabowo’s administration,” Tarli told Indonesia Business Post on Wednesday, April 24, 2024.
He cited that there are two indications that Prabowo would not live in the shadows of Jokowi. First, a statement of Prabowo’s brother-in-law, former Central Bank governor Soedradjad Djiwandono, in a recent interview with Kompas TV that the free lunch for schoolchildren program, proposed by Prabowo-Gibran, is more important than building a new State capital. The relocation of Indonesia’s capital from Jakarta to Nusantara in East Kalimantan has been one priority of Jokowi’s administration.
“So I think that Soedradjad is allowed to convey his opinion to the public is an indication that Prabowo may not always be dictated by Jokowi on his government’s policy.” Tarli said.
Second is Prabowo’s effort to approach Chairwoman of the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) Megawati Soekarnoputri. If Jokowi manages to takeover big political party like Golkar, he will have a strong bargaining power to participate in the new government.
“Prabowo needs PDI-P to balance Golkar Party and Jokowi. That’s why, Prabowo is open for communications with Megawati and PDI-P,” Tarli said.
“And PDI-P seems to be very welcoming. It never closed its door to Prabowo. PDI-P and Megawati close the door for Jokowi, but not for Prabowo.” he added.
Anti-Jokowi faction in Gerindra
Tarli admitted there are many factions inside Gerindra Party, including pro-Jokowi faction, like Sufmi Dasco camp, and anti-Jokowi faction, such as Fadli Zon camp.
He said that when Prabowo decided to accept Jokowi’s invitation to join his cabinet as defense minister, he gave a significant role for Sufmi Dasco ‘s faction and pull
Fadli Zon a little back further in the last 5 years.
“But if the wind changes direction, I think Prabowo will give significant role to a different faction in the future. Let say, the pro-Jokowi faction is considered to be harmful to him, he will drop down their role,” Tarli said.
Mutual respect
Jokowi and Prabowo Subianto obviously have mutual respect for each other. A source within Presidential Office said Prabowo has respect for Jokowi, because without Jokowi’s support , it is unlikely that he will be elected as president in the 2024 election.
“It is all Jokowi ‘s strategy. It is Jokowi who appointed him as defense minister and granted him an honorary four-star general,” the source told Indonesia Business Post on April 17, 2024.
At the same time, he said, Jokowi also has respect for Prabowo because it was Prabowo who brought Jokowi from Solo and supported him as candidate for the Jakarta governorship, which Jokowi won in 2012.
Tarli admitted that there is a potential of worsening relation between Jokowi and Prabowo like what happened in the Phillipines between former president Rodrigo Duterte and the current president Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.
“If Jokowi highly intervene in Prabowo’s administration, I do not think Prabowo want it. At the end of the day, Prabowo will break away from Jokowi. But, as a smart leader, it is impossible for Jokowi to do that,” he said.
Tarli said the only thing that Prabowo could offer for Joko Widodo during his administration is something that is badly needed by Jokowi once he is no more in office.
“As a former President he will need protection. So, in the end, the bargain is a bargain for Jokowi not to dictate Prabowo, and for Prabowo to provide security protection for Jokowi after he is no longer in power. I think that’s what Prabowo will give,” he concluded.
