Political analysts believe the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is currently hesitant about its strategy for this year’s Jakarta gubernatorial election, citing both positive and negative implications for the party, particularly if they decide to support non-party figure like Anies Baswedan.
The uncertainty within PDI-P reflects the party’s strategic considerations and internal disagreements over how to best approach the Jakarta gubernatorial election.
While supporting Anies Baswedan, who himself was Governor of Jakarta for the 2017-2022 term, could potentially align PDI-P with a strong candidate capable of winning the gubernatorial race, it also risks alienating key figures and disrupting long-term political strategies.
Arifki Chaniago, Executive Director of Aljabar Strategic Indonesia, believes that Anies Baswedan has the highest potential to defeat the Ridwan Kamil-Suswono pair in the Jakarta gubernatorial race.
“Anies is the most likely figure to be able to defeat the Ridwan Kamil-Suswono pair in the Jakarta gubernatorial election,” Arifki said as quoted by katadata.co.id on Tuesday, August 27, 2024.
He was referring to the pair, who is being nominated by a coalition of political parties dominated by member of the Onward Indonesia Coalition, championed by President Joko Widodo and President-elect Prabowo Subianto.
However, Arifki also highlighted that such a move could potentially hinder the party’s internal cadre development for future national political stages.
He argued that backing Anies might jeopardize the political futures of prominent PDI-P figures like Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok) and Ganjar Pranowo, whose careers have been closely nurtured by the party.
“By supporting Anies, Ganjar’s chances in the 2029 presidential election will be dead, and Ahok will lose his platform in Jakarta,” Arifki remarked.
According to Arifki, PDI-P’s support for Anies could diminish Ganjar’s electability in the 2029 presidential race. Similarly, Ahok, who once served as Jakarta’s governor, might lose his influence or opportunity to make a political comeback in Jakarta.
Rumors were initially rife that PDI-P mulled over pairing Anies with party cadre Rano Karno for the Jakarta gubernatorial race.
However, this narrative is now being questioned due to the emergence of a Pramono Anung-Rano Karno pair.
Arifki said that neither Ahok nor Pramono Anung appears strong enough to compete against the Ridwan Kamil-Suswono pair, which has secured support from 12 political parties.
“I don’t think they are competitive enough to win in Jakarta. So, in my opinion, the first choice is more inclined towards Anies,” he said.
Arifki said further that should PDI-P decide to support Anies, this move could attract additional support from former Anies supporters in the 2024 presidential election, namely those of NasDem and the National Awakening Party (PKB).
NasDem and PKB are currently part of the 12-member political parties of the Koalisi Indonesia Maju (KIM) Plus, which has declared support for Ridwan Kamil-Suswono.
“On the other hand, we will see whether NasDem and PKB will make any new maneuvers,” Arifki said.
On Monday, August 26, PDI-P unexpectedly postponed the announcement of its support for Anies as a gubernatorial candidate for Jakarta, even though Anies had arrived at the PDI-P headquarters on Jalan Diponegoro, Central Jakarta.
A number of sources said that some PDI-P members are still not in agreement with the party’s decision to nominate Anies.
The debate has been so intense that some members have threatened to leave the party led by Megawati Soekarnoputri.
“The announcement could not be made today. It’s not yet canceled (Anies’ candidacy by PDI-P), but the announcement is likely to be postponed,” a source told Katadata.co.id.
Meanwhile, PDI-P Treasurer Olly Dondokambey revealed that PDIP Chairperson Megawati Soekarnoputri has instructed Pramono Anung to run in the 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election.
“Yesterday, pak Pramono was summoned by Madam (Megawati) and asked to run as a candidate for the Jakarta governorship,” Olly said when contacted by the media on Tuesday, August 27.
