Anies Baswedan’s presidential candidacy is in a state of disarray after Nasdem Party, Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), that initially supported him, have not agreed on several issues in the negotiations to establish a coalition. The Law No. 7/2017 on General Elections stipulates that only a political party and/or a coalition of political parties with 20% seats in the House of Representatives (DPR) can propose a presidential candidate.
Hasan Nasbi, a political analyst from the Cyrus Network, said that it was very difficult for political parties to establish a coalition and consequently secure a presidential candidate ticket for Anies, formerly Jakarta governor.
“So far, Anies has just secured supports from one party. It will be a long journey and a hard fight for him,” he told Indonesia Business Post on December 1, 2022.
Shaky coalition
Nasbi, who is a supporter of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, said there was a procedural error in the process of establishing a coalition to support Anies. Nasdem, PKS and Democratic Party should have first discussed the foundation of the coalition like the common ground, programs and power sharing before seriously naming their candidates for the president and vice president positions.
“When building a house, people usually have the same idea on the strong foundation, the building structure, the sturdy walls and the roof. It is the same with a coalition. The coalition must be strong to prevent any disturbing elements. What makes a coalition perfect is the presidential candidate but it should be the last thing [to discuss]. It is impossible to start building a house from the roof,” he explained.
In reality, however, political parties declare their presidential candidates first before discussing the common ground, programs and power sharing. This procedural error has made the discussion on establishing a coalition complicated and difficult.
Political costs
Emrus Sihombing, a political analyst from the Pelita Harapan University, said Anies would need extra efforts as a non political party member to secure supports from political parties. To approach and lobby political parties, Anies will need political cost, political bargaining power and political transaction.
“It is easier for a candidate, who is a party member,” he said. He added that to convince a political party would not be easy. A political party has its own calculation before making a move.
Political parties supporting Anies have been discussing the presidential campaign costs, which could reach trillions of rupiah.
“Who will pay for the campaign? Anies? The political parties who support him? Or an interest group?” Sihombing questioned.
In a political concept, an interest group represents businessmen. So far, there has been no clear signal from businessmen wether they will finance Anies’ campaign or not. “In my opinion, the opportunity for Anies to be a presidential candidate is still 50:50,” he added.
Indonesia will hold simultaneous general elections on February 14, 2024. General Elections Commission (KPU) recorded in July 2022 that the number of voters would reach 190,659,348 people.
Testing the waters
A source in the government said that Anies’ declaration as a presidential candidacy was a smart strategy from Nasdem Party Chairman Surya Paloh. Paloh, the source said, announced Anies’ candidacy to test how strong was the public support for the former Jakarta governor.
“As a businessman, Paloh wants to test the waters. If he thought Anies could not be ‘sold in the market’, he would not do it,” the source added.
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Paloh is well aware Nasdem, which only has 9.05% seats at the House or 59 seats, cannot propose a presidential candidate. The party needs others to form a coalition. However, forming a coalition with parties with different interests is not easy.
The source said the negotiation of the three political parties have been centered around the vice presidential candidates and campaign costs, which made it difficult for them to reach an agreement.
At the same time, there is a split inside Nasdem Party. Some of the party’s leading figures including former trade minister Enggartiasto Lukito, seasoned politician and former public housing minister Siswono Yudo Husodo and politician and fashion designer Niluh Jelantik resigned from the party over their disagreement with Anies’ candidacy.
The source said Paloh would have a second option to offer Anies as a vice presidential candidate, as he believed that Anies could not win the presidential election by using identity politic card.
“[Defense Minister and Gerindra Party chairman] Prabowo [Subianto] took a picture with cleric Rizieq Shihab in the 2019 election and hoped to win support from his supporters. However, a lesson learn from Prabowo’s experience that the use of identity politic will not make a candidate win a presidential election,” the source explained.
Ongoing negotiation
Democratic Party Spokesman Herzaki Mahendra Putra said his party and other political parties were in discussion on building a coalition to support Anies. He claimed that in the discussion, there was more understanding among the parties. The parties have also discussed the presidential and vice presidential candidates.
“We are focusing on the criteria and the way to determine president and vice president candidates,” he concluded.
