A foreign policy analyst has predicted that Indonesia, under the presidency of Prabowo Subianto, will continue to have strong economic ties with the new emerging power China, but keep strong defense relationship with the United States and European nations.
International Relation lecturer at Padjajaran University, Teuku Rezasyah, said for a short term China is the only country that can address Indonesia’s needs of investment and economic cooperation, but not for defense matters.
“China has limited research and development, its products are also limited and it has no state-of-the-art technology. And Prabowo knows that. So for defense matters, Indonesia will rely on the United States,” he spoke to Indonesia Business Post on Friday, September 13, 2024.
Indonesia, he added, has given too big concession for the US in the form of Garuda Shield and Super Garuda Shield joint military exercises. The joint exercises have placed Indonesia at the position of the US’s semi ally. At the same time, Indonesia has only limited military cooperation with China despite both having a comprehensive strategic partnership.
“China is jealous because we have optimum military cooperation with the US, and the US is jealous also because we have optimum economic cooperation with China. So, the job of pak Prabowo now is to invite new actors, such as French, European Union, and Japan, which should be part of the mosaic of Indonesia’s long term policy of comprehensive strategic partnership.” Teuku Rezasyah said.
To reach the objective, he cited, Prabowo has visited many European countries, such as Turkiye, Latvia, French and a number of Scandinavian countries that have independent capacity in defense sector. Those countries have good research and development.
“Prabowo traveled to those countries to establish partnership. The newly built partnership will be signed when he is sworn in as president,” he said.
Meanwhile, an analyst with the Indonesia Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies (Lesperssi) Beni Sukadis said that the Prabowo administration will continue to champion a non-aligned stance.
“This means, the government will avoid alignment with major powers like the United States or China, and instead, seeking to act as a mediator and a peace broker in regional conflicts. This non-aligned approach helps Indonesia navigate the complex dynamics between China and Taiwan, advocating for dialogue and peaceful solutions,” Beni said.
South China Sea issue
In the context of South China Sea issue, Teuku Rezasyah said Prabowo knew very well that there is a problem with China’s claim of nine-dash line in the South China Sea.
He was of the opinion that Prabowo will speak out at the global level that China ‘s claim over nine-dash line in the South China Sea contradicts with international law documents.
“Prabowo knows that ASEAN has the principle of zone of peace, freedom and neutrality. He also knows that Nine-Dash Line has no foundation in international document. So, any countries’ move in Southeast Asia should not bring with them their territorial ambition and nuclear weapons, but should respect ASEAN nations that have implemented the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation,” he concluded.
