A survey institution, the Political Strategy Group (PSG), has projected that the Jakarta Gubernatorial Election could likely go into two rounds if there are three candidates in the race.
This projection follows the experience of the 2017 election, which also saw three candidates and ended with a second-round runoff.
According to the latest PSG survey which was published on Saturday, September 7, 2024, 39 percent of respondents expressed support for Anies Baswedan, 22 percent for Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok), and 15 percent for Ridwan Kamil.
Ahsan Ridhoi, Head Researcher of the PSG, said that this suggests Jakarta residents tend to favor having their former governors return to lead the city.
“There seems to be fond memories with Pak Anies and Pak Ahok, making them more preferred than Ridwan Kamil, who only garners 15 percent support,” Ahsan said.
However, Ridwan Kamil is the only candidate who has officially registered as a gubernatorial candidate with the Jakarta Election Commission (KPUD).
In a head-to-head match-up, Anies is expected to win in one round against Ridwan Kamil, while the vote gap between Ridwan Kamil and Ahok is predicted to be smaller.
Ahsan also pointed out that support for Ridwan Kamil is fragmented. While 58 percent of respondents might vote for him, only 19 percent are loyal and won’t switch their support.
On the other hand, 42 percent confirmed they would not support Ridwan Kamil, no matter who his opponent is. This indicates a significant number of swing voters that could influence the election outcome.
Furthermore, Ahsan highlighted that the 2024 Jakarta election is expected to create “electoral psychological pressure” on voters since Anies and Ahok − two of the most favored candidates − are no longer in the race for the November 27 election.
Following the official announcement of candidates Ridwan Kamil-Suswono, Pramono Anung-Rano Karno, and Dharma Pongrekun-Kun Wardana, there is potential for a shift of 47 percent of Anies’ voters to Ridwan Kamil, while 58 percent of Ahok’s voters might also switch to him.
Additionally, 40 percent of combined Anies and Ahok voters remain undecided, presenting an opportunity for Pramono-Rano to target the undecided electorate.
Ahsan stressed the importance for the Pramono-Rano team to focus on strategic campaign efforts, specifically targeting swing voters, and warned that relying solely on social media campaigns would be ineffective.
Meanwhile, Ridwan Kamil-Suswono must pay closer attention to the aspirations of Jakarta’s citizens, particularly housing issues, which remain a significant concern for many voters.
The PSG report concluded that both the Ridwan Kamil-Suswono and Pramono-Rano tickets face substantial challenges in winning over voters from the influential Anies and Ahok camps.
Ahsan suggested that a strategic move, such as engaging Anies as a campaign endorser, could potentially shift the electoral landscape for the 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election.
