Rumor of a cabinet reshuffle is gaining strength in Indonesia following the meeting between President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and the chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), Megawati Soekarnoputri, on May 8, 2022.
Soekarnoputri questioned Widodo at the meeting about his plans to reshuffle the cabinet, a government source told Indonesia Business Post. “Ibu Megawati asked Jokowi, ‘Will you continue with the policy to reshuffle the cabinet?'” the source said on May 9, 2022.
Strong warning from president
As part of his public discourse last month, Widodo blatantly warned several of his coordinating ministers on the possibility of his third term in the office. According to the source, Soekarnoputri called the president to clarify follow-up measures against the ministers. Widodo noted that it was just a strong warning and left it up to the public to decide how to interpret it.
Yet, President Widodo was profoundly considering the planned shake-up. Soekarnoputri responded by saying that the president should first coordinate with her on the matter, even though the execution of the cabinet reshuffle plans is in the hands of the president.
The names of the ministers that will be replaced are still in his hands. It is challenging to get the names because Widodo keeps them to himself, the source said, adding that the president let the public closely monitor his remarks during cabinet meeting.
Three ministers receiving warning from Widodo, namely Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan for his public discourse of the third period of presidency; Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi for cooking oil scarcity; and Minister of State-owned Enterprises Erick Thohir for his frequent performance in TV entertainment programs. The source said Widodo was unhappy with Thohir for his apparent ambition to run for presidency in 2024 and has somehow neglected his main job.
Political power consolidation
A political analyst from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), Siti Zuhro, said a cabinet shakeup may occur ahead of the 2024 general elections. At the very least, the reshuffle aims to improve the government’s performance ahead of the election and strengthen a new coalition between political parties.
“The Jokowi administration and Megawati as party leader are beginning a consolidation process,” she said.
According to her, several ministers who are to be replaced are the minister of economic affairs. The economy is the basis for Indonesia’s recovery, which was deteriorating due to the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Indonesia’s economic recovery must demonstrate its ability to recover from the pandemic.
“The cooking oil scarcity on the market has brought shame to Jokowi’s regime. Some people lost their lives due to fighting for cooking oil. The trade minister would be expelled from his post due to cooking oil mafia in the ministry,” stated Zuhro.
Some of the ministers whose parties remained in the PDIP-led coalition will stay in the cabinet. However, several of the parties that built their partnership will not. As coalition formations change ahead of the 2024 election, several ministers from the Nasdem party may be replaced.
“After the 2019 election, PDIP and Nasdem party relationships were unpleasant. At the same time, the relationship between PDIP and Gerindra became more harmonious. There is a possibility of a Gerindra-PDIP coalition in 2024,” Zuhro explained.
Political analyst Stanislaus Riyanta said that a meeting between Soekarnoputri and Widodo served as a regular meeting to consolidate political power. As far as he is concerned, the forum has not yet led to the policy of a cabinet reshuffle. Added that the current political situation needs consolidation before the 2024 presidential election and preparation for a shift from pandemic to endemic status, he said, “It should be noted that Jokowi is the most unpredictable president. Therefore, a cabinet reshuffle is only speculation by politicians.”
According to him, the current state affairs does not necessitate a cabinet reshuffle. However, several politicians who hope to become ministers may want a shake-up.
