The Upstream Oil and Gas Regulatory Task Force (SKK Migas), reported an average national crude oil lifting of 567,900 barrels of oil per day (bopd) as of May 31, 2025, approximately 94 percent of the state budget (APBN) target of 605,000 bopd.

Head of SKK Migas, Djoko Siswanto, acknowledged the shortfall during a hearing with Energy Commission XII of the House of Representatives on Tuesday, July 1, 2025, but expressed optimism that production will catch up in the second half of the year.

“By May, we’ve reached 94 percent of the lifting target. The outlook is positive, we aim to hit the full 605,000 bopd by the end of 2025,” he said.

He noted that while production levels have declined steadily since 2019, there have been signs of recovery in recent months. Oil output in January stood at 578,000 bopd and climbed to 580,000 bopd in March matching the 2024 levels. As of June, output reached 583,000 bopd, marking a year-on-year increase.

The uptick is largely attributed to additional output from ExxonMobil’s Cepu Block, which began producing an extra 30,000 bopd this month. “With the added volume from Cepu starting in July, we expect to exceed the APBN target moving forward,” Djoko added.

Looking ahead, SKK Migas forecasts that 2026 oil lifting could range between 600,000 and 610,000 bopd, supported by enhanced field performance and ongoing investment in upstream projects.

On the gas front, SKK Migas reported that realized lifting reached 5,530 million standard cubic feet per day (MMscfd) as of May 98 percent of the APBN target. The agency expects this to average 5,545 MMscfd by year-end, or 98.5 percent of the goal.

The combined lifting for oil and gas as of May stood at 97 percent, with expectations to average 99 percent by the end of 2025. For 2026, gas production is projected between 1,553 and 1,627 MMscfd.

Meanwhile, cost recovery − a mechanism used to reimburse oil and gas contractors − reached US$3.57 billion or 42 percent of the annual target as of May. By year-end, SKK Migas expects total cost recovery to reach around US$8.2 billion, 96 percent of the target and slightly lower than previously projected.

However, state revenue from the oil and gas sector faces headwinds due to falling global oil prices. By May, revenue stood at US$5.18 billion, or 39.8 percent of the APBN’s US$13 billion target.

“The APBN assumed an oil price of US$82 per barrel, but actual prices have ranged from US$65 to US$77,” Djoko cited.

As a result, the full-year projection has been revised down to US$10.8 billion or around 81 percent of the target.

For 2026, SKK Migas anticipates state revenues in the range of US$7.8 billion to US$11.9 billion, depending on global market conditions.