The Indonesian rupiah has yet to show signs of significant strengthening against the US dollar, with analyst suggesting that the currency’s stagnation reflects the market’s lingering doubts about Indonesia’s economic growth prospects.

“The rupiah hasn’t moved much against the US dollar, still hovering near Rp16,700, indicating continued pressure,” Foreign exchange market analyst Ariston Tjendra said as quoted by Katadata.co.id on Wednesday, November 12, 2025.

According to him, the government’s loose fiscal and monetary policies have not been sufficient to boost national economic growth, leading investors to view the rupiah’s upside potential as limited.

“As long as Indonesia’s economic growth fails to meet expectations, the rupiah is unlikely to strengthen significantly,” he said.

On the external front, waning expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December 2025 have strengthened the US dollar, further reducing the rupiah’s chances of rebounding.

“The rupiah is expected to trade in the range of Rp16,650 to Rp16,730 per US dollar,” Ariston added.

According to Bloomberg data, the rupiah opened at Rp16,715 per US dollar on Wednesday morning, down 21 points or 0.13 percent from the previous day’s close.

KB Valbury Sekuritas Senior Economist Fikri C. Permana, however, predicted a limited potential for appreciation today [Wednesday], estimating the rupiah could slightly strengthen toward Rp16,680 per US dollar.

He cited several factors that may support the currency, including waning geopolitical risks as the US government moves toward reopening, strong demand in the latest government sukuk (SBSN) auction, and continued net buying in the domestic stock market.

“Overall, a combination of stabilizing external sentiment and improving domestic factors could help limit further rupiah depreciation,” Fikri said.