Indonesia’s economy grew by 5.04 percent year-on-year (yoy) in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, slightly moderating from 5.12 percent in the previous quarter but remaining above market expectations, said a report from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released on Wednesday, November 5, 2025.

BPS Deputy for National Accounts and Statistical Analysis, Moh. Edy Mahmud, announced the figure during a press conference, while noting that quarterly growth stood at 1.43 percent (qtq). “Economic growth in the third quarter of 2025 reached 5.04 percent,” he said.

The growth was supported by resilient household consumption, particularly in food and beverages, accommodation, and other goods and services, alongside a continued trade surplus despite lingering global uncertainties.

A consensus compiled by CNBC Indonesia from 13 institutions had projected GDP growth of 5.01 percent (yoy) and 1.40 percent (qtq), making the official figure marginally higher than forecasts.

While the third-quarter result showed a slight slowdown from the April–June period, analysts said it underscores Indonesia’s economic resilience and stable domestic demand amid external pressures, such as weakening global trade and fluctuating commodity prices.

Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Airlangga Hartarto, expressed optimism that the fourth quarter (October–December) would record the highest growth of the year, driven by government stimulus and policy reforms.

“If all government programs are implemented optimally, we are confident the fourth quarter will deliver the strongest performance this year,” Airlangga said in Jakarta on Tuesday, November 4, 2025.

Among the key programs he cited are internship initiatives for new university graduates, expansion of income tax (PPh 21) incentives, October–November food aid, work accident insurance support, housing benefits under BPJS Ketenagakerjaan (the Workers Social Security Agency), cash-for-work programs, licensing deregulation, and urban housing quality improvements.

He added that downstream industry development and investment acceleration would also underpin stronger economic activity in the final quarter of 2025.

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa shared similar optimism, projecting that household consumption, which accounts for over 75 percent of GDP, would grow around 5.5 percent in the fourth quarter.

“Household consumption growth is likely to reach about 5.5 percent or slightly higher,” Purbaya said at the Finance Ministry on October 21, 2025.

He expects overall GDP growth in the last quarter to hit 5.67 percent, supported by rising consumer confidence and the delayed impact of government stimulus programs.

Purbaya also challenged the World Bank’s forecast of Indonesia’s 2025 growth at 4.8 percent, saying it does not fully capture the ongoing recovery momentum.

He noted that household spending rose to 75.1 percent of total expenditure in September, up from 74.8 percent in August, reflecting improving domestic demand.

According to the minister, this rebound is partly due to the government’s decision to inject Rp200 trillion (US$12.5 billion) into the financial system since September 13, 2025.

The funds were distributed to major state-owned banks: Bank Mandiri, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), and Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) each received Rp55 trillion, Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN) obtained Rp25 trillion, and Bank Syariah Indonesia (BSI) received Rp10 trillion.