Shares of state-owned lender PT Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) have emerged as one of the most sought-after stocks in Indonesia’s banking sector, even as the broader market remains under pressure, with analysts citing the bank’s solid fundamentals, attractive valuation, and supportive government policies as key factors driving optimism for a rebound.

According to Bloomberg’s consensus as of October 20, 2025, 32 out of 36 analysts (88.9 percent) recommend buying BNI shares. The average 12-month target price among 29 analysts stands at Rp5,023 per share, implying a potential 24 percent upside from Monday’s closing price of Rp4,040.

At the start of the week, BNI shares rose 6.3 percent to Rp4,040 after touching a high of Rp4,110, outperforming its peers − Bank Mandiri (up 6.17 percent), BRI (5.14percent), and BCA (5 percent). The outperformance reflects growing investor confidence in BNI’s resilience and earnings outlook.

BNI’s financial performance remains robust despite a sluggish economy. As of August 2025, the bank booked a net profit of Rp13.4 trillion, down only 5.7 percentfrom the previous year, a smaller decline compared to BRI and Mandiri, whose profits fell by 8–10 percent.

Its non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.95percent, and its CASA (current and savings account) ratio remains dominant, signaling strong funding efficiency.

A report by Sinarmas Sekuritas dated October 14, 2025, noted that the government’s Rp55 trillion liquidity support for state-owned banks will serve as a major catalyst for the sector, including BNI. The brokerage highlighted BNI’s success in maintaining asset quality while expanding its micro, small, and medium enterprise (MSME) lending through digital platforms.

Similarly, Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia assessed BNI’s valuation as “highly attractive,” suggesting substantial upside potential once market sentiment improves. The firm described BNI as one of the most defensive plays among Indonesia’s major banks.

Still attractive

Currently, BNI trades at a price-to-book value (PBV) of 0.92x, below the industry average of around 1x. Based on the Peter Lynch PEG ratio, which compares P/E to earnings growth, BNI’s PEG stands at 0.4x, well below the fair benchmark of 1x.

With a P/E ratio of 5.5x and an expected annual earnings growth of 14 percent, analysts argue that BNI’s share price remains significantly undervalued.

Over the past 12 months, BNI’s shares have declined 6.9percent, a smaller drop than BRI (–27.8 percent) and Mandiri (–41.9 percent). Technical indicators such as the SMA10 and SMA20 suggest early signs of upward momentum, supported by rising trading volume. The MACD indicator has also turned positive, signaling renewed investor buying interest.

In the short term, analysts project potential movement toward Rp4,250 as the next resistance level.

Market participants suggest that institutional investors including the Workers Social Security Agency (BPJS Ketenagakerjaan), State investment management agency Danantara, and State-owned insurer TASPEN are beginning to accumulate banking shares ahead of the upcoming dividend season.

“BCA, BRI, Mandiri, and BNI are all still trading below their fair valuations. There’s room for another 20–40percent upside,” Director of Indonesian Limited Liability Company PT Rumah Para Pedagang, Kiswoyo Adi, spoke to Indonesia Business Post on Tuesday, October21. 2025.

He added that the upcoming dividend distribution, expected before November–December, has attracted long-term institutional buyers.

“BPJS Ketenagakerjaan has only allocated around 10percent of its assets under management (AUM) into equities. They still have space to increase this to 20percent, meaning roughly Rp86 trillion could flow into the market,” Kiswoyo said.

He further noted that Danantara and TASPEN are likely following BPJS Ketenagakerjaan’s move. “Even though they won’t disclose details, I’m confident they’re also buying. Historically, TASPEN tends to mirror BPJS Ketenagakerjaan’s investment moves,” he added.

Dividend appeal

BNI currently offers an estimated dividend yield of 9.4percent, one of the highest among its peers, making it particularly appealing to medium- and long-term investors seeking stable returns.

With strong capital adequacy, disciplined risk management, and improving liquidity, BNI is seen as well-positioned to lead the banking sector’s recovery.

“Most analysts agree that BNI’s valuation doesn’t yet reflect its true potential. Once sentiment turns positive, BBNI could be among the top performers in the next market rebound,” Kiswoyo said.