Concerns have mounted over Indonesia’s official economic growth data after the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported second-quarter (Q2) 2025 growth of 5.12 percent, with an economist arguing that it does not match leading indicators.

Mohammad Faisal, an economist at the Center of Reform on Economist (CORE) Indonesia, said BPS’s decision to update its methodology by adding new components may have contributed to the higher-than-expected number.

“It’s a bit tricky. If you look at leading indicators that many institutions monitor, growth should not have reached 5 percent in the second quarter. Almost no one predicted that,” Faisal told Indonesia Business Post on Thursday, October 2, 2025.

Faisal estimated that under the previous methodology, growth in Q2 would have been closer to 4.8–5 percent, and that the upcoming Q4 figure could also diverge depending on whether BPS’s updated approach is used.

“The question is whether we rely on forecasts based on leading indicators or the official number published by BPS,” he said.

Despite skepticism over statistical adjustments, Faisal acknowledged that fiscal and monetary easing would support stronger momentum heading into the year’s end. He projected Q3 2025 growth at 4.8–4.9 percent, while Q4 2025 could reach 4.9–5.0 percent.

“Government stimulus, lower interest rates, and liquidity injections should at least lift household consumption in the fourth quarter,” he noted.

However, he cautioned that investment growth (PMTB) is unlikely to see significant additional momentum after an unusually high 6.7 percent spike in Q2.

“That level of investment growth almost never happens, not even before the pandemic. It’s hard to expect a repeat in Q4, though the trend should remain positive,” Faisal said.

Still, he remained cautiously optimistic, pointing to stable inflation and a relatively steady rupiah. “With the current policy direction, conditions should be more positive than earlier this year,” he added.