A wave of protests across Indonesia stems from economic hardship, political misjudgments, and unresolved tensions between the country’s security institutions, with multiple actors exploiting the situation, says political analyst at the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) Tarli Nugroho.

He said that the protests, which began as peaceful demonstrations by students and civil society groups, escalated into scattered violence in recent days, reflecting a volatile mix of public frustration and elite maneuvering.

“This is not merely a spontaneous outburst of public anger,” Nugroho told Indonesia Business Post on Monday, September 1, 2025. “It is a convergence of social discontent, elite insensitivity, and latent institutional rivalries that have been left unaddressed for years.”

He pointed to mounting economic pressures, including layoffs and weakening purchasing power, as underlying drivers of public dissatisfaction, with the government’s decision to tighten tax collection on small-scale online businesses while granting additional incentives to lawmakers creating a perception of inequality.

“The move was poorly communicated and came at a time when people are already struggling to make ends meet,” he said. “This became the trigger that unified various interests and grievances.”

The analyst added that global geopolitical tensions and predictions of a difficult economic outlook through 2029 had already heightened public anxiety. “People were primed for discontent, and when this trigger emerged, the situation escalated quickly,” he said.

Narratives

While some commentators have framed the unrest as a clash between two political factions, often described as “Hambalang versus Solo,” Nugroho warned against oversimplification.

“That narrative might be a smokescreen,” he said. “It could be a deliberate construction to divert attention from the real actors who stand to benefit from escalating tensions.”

He said multiple political parties, including major ones like the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Golkar, may have stakes in the evolving situation, though he emphasized that concrete evidence of orchestration remains elusive.

According to Nugroho, the protests have followed a pattern where peaceful rallies during the day are later joined by anarchic groups in the evening, often leading to acts of arson and clashes with security forces.

“This raises questions about whether these groups are being mobilized by interests seeking to destabilize the situation further,” he said. “Evidence of intelligence involvement has been mentioned, but the key issue is: who are they working for?”

Police vs military

Nugroho said one of the deeper structural issues fueling the unrest is an unresolved rivalry between the National Police (Polri) and the Indonesian Military (TNI), exacerbated by disparities in budget allocation and perceived favoritism in recent years.

“For nearly a decade, the police have been empowered to a level that exceeds what is typical in other democracies,” he said. “They collect vast revenues from non-tax state income, control law enforcement, and oversee public order, creating an institution that is powerful but difficult to hold accountable.”

He added that the military has grown increasingly resentful, leading to efforts such as the expansion of military commands (Kodam) to rebalance institutional influence.

“This is a costly way to manage institutional jealousy, but politically it is seen as necessary to maintain stability,” Nugroho said.

The analyst said public anger intensified after a 21-year-old motorcycle taxi driver, Affan Kurniawan, was killed after being struck by a police tactical vehicle during a rally in Jakarta during the unrest on Thursday, August 28, 2025, raising questions about whether the incident was due to negligence or provocation.

“Public trust in the police has been fragile since high-profile scandals, including the Sambo case, and this incident has reopened old wounds,” he said. “Even if accidental, it has become a rallying point for anger.”

President’s response

President Prabowo Subianto has responded cautiously, aware that a misstep could inflame tensions further and jeopardize his administration.

“The president is reading the full picture carefully,” Nugroho said. “This is a moment where one wrong move could turn public anger not only against the police but also against the government itself.”

He added that the unrest poses risks not only to political stability but also to investor confidence, noting that markets closely monitor how the administration manages public dissent.