An incident on the sidelines of the Operational Troop Roll Call and Military Honor ceremony at the Army’s Special Forces’ Training and Education Center in Batujajar, West Bandung, West Java, on August 10, 2025 has led to widespread speculation of a heated rivalry among two young political figures.

A video footage showed Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka was walking rapidly toward the guest seats provided on the main stage, where Cabinet ministers and heads of government institutions, including Coordinating Minister for Infrastructure and Regional Development Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), sat. The guests − all wearing military camouflage uniforms − were awaiting the beginning of the ceremony, which was presided by President Prabowo Subianto.

Gibran seemed unaware of AHY’s presence and proceeded to greet other officials, such as Attorney General ST Burhanuddin and Army Chief of Staff General Maruli Simanjuntak.

Yet, Gibran − the eldest son of 7th president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo − not only missed to greet AHY − the eldest son of 6th president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) − but also other ministers, including Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia, Coordinating Minister for Community Empowerment Muhaimin Iskandar, and Coordinating Minister for Food Affairs Zulkifli Hasan.

Political analysts have given mixed analysis into the August 10, 2025 incident. Unlike the general public, who assumed the incident as a sign of tension between the two young politicians, analysts believed that it was rather a political rivalry leading up to the 2029 elections.

“If we call it a conflict, then clearly it’s not. But if we call it a growing rivalry, that’s what it is − a competition toward 2029,” Political analyst, Ray Rangkuti, spoke to Indonesia Business Post on Monday, August 19, 2025.

He argued that both AHY and Gibran are trying to build their political images and compete for influence in the eyes of President Prabowo.

“That’s why it shouldn’t be called conflict, just rivalry. A rivalry heading into 2029,” he added.

Ray noted that this rivalry is largely symbolic, reflected in public gestures and expressions displayed by both figures. “Symbolic rivalry is seen in how their images are built, how they are presented together, and so on,” he cited.

Ray was of the opinion that there has yet to be any direct “political combat” between AHY and Gibran since their roles do not overlap. “Their domains are very far apart. AHY works directly under the president, and his duties do not intersect with Gibran’s authority,” he said.

When asked who has the greater chance in 2029 election, Ray said it was too early to draw conclusions. “It’s far too soon to judge now. Let’s just be patient, there are still four years ahead,” he noted.

Another analyst, Hendri Satrio, said that speculation about AHY-Gibran rivalry ahead of the 2029 presidential election should be seen as a natural part of politics, but stressed that both remain under one command of President Prabowo.

“For 2029, political competition is inevitable. If AHY and Gibran eventually choose their own separate paths, that would be normal,” Hendri said.

He cited that any potential competition is unlikely to surface in the near term since both leaders are still aligned under Prabowo’s leadership. “At this moment, both are under President Prabowo’s command. So, in my view, even if there is competition, it won’t be visible,” he noted.

Hendri further downplayed the incident, suggesting it was accidental. “Regarding the handshake issue, it really looked unintentional. Gibran may have arrived a bit late and seemed to be in a hurry,” he said.

The videotaped moment of Gibran missing to greet AHY and a number of Cabinet ministers had gone viral on the internet.

One of the accounts that uploaded the video clip was @wakandafolk on Instagram. By Tuesday, August 12, 2025, the post had been liked by some 12,800 users.

A similar video was also uploaded by a Democratic Party cadre, Herzaky Mahendra Putra. However, the video not only highlighted “the lack of interaction” between AHY and Gibran, but also displayed AHY’s interactions with other leaders, such as President Prabowo and Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin. The footage even captured moments of AHY’s closeness with the public.

“Coordinating Minister AHY. Loved by the leaders, cherished by the people. Simply work wholeheartedly, in line with the directions of the President, and strive to provide the greatest benefit for the people. Masya Allah (As God has wished) Tabarakallah (Praised be to God) …,” Herzaky, who also serves as Communication and Public Relations Coordinator of the Democratic Party, said.

AHY and Gibran are only two of perhaps dozens Indonesian figures who have the potentials to run or be nominated as presidential or vice presidential candidates in the 2029 presidential election after the Constitutional Court issued a ruling in January this year that removes the presidential threshold requirement for the nomination of president and vice president as stipulated in the 2017 elections law.

However, the incident − albeit it cannot absolutely confirm the rivalry between the two − has added color to the largely anticipated 2029 presidential election, particularly because both AHY and Gibran are respectively sons of two former presidents.

AHY and Gibran’s prominent roles in Prabowo's cabinet have also increased their public visibility and influence, a significant factor for them in securing support for their nomination and subsequently garnering votes in the following election.

Only time will tell whether the rivalry will turn into a real “political combat” in 2029.