The speculation of the organization of an extraordinary congress (Munaslub) for Golkar Party is gaining traction, with political analyst Ray Rangkuti suggesting that the chances of the Munaslub taking place currently stand at around 60:40 percent, or potentially even 70:30 percent. 

However, he predicts that it is unlikely to occur in the near future, with the possibility of it being held after 2025, possibly in 2026.

"If there is a plan for a Munaslub, it is more likely to take place after 2025. I am not very confident it will happen in 2025 because there is a desire from Prabowo to calm the political situation until then," Ray Rangkuti spoke to Indonesia Business Post on Thursday, August 14, 2025.

He said further that while signals about the potential Munaslub are becoming clearer, many are questioning whether Bahlil Lahadalia, the current Golkar chairman, can retain his position.

“Bahlil Lahadalia himself doesn't have strong grassroots support. His base came from the top, appointed by Jokowi, not from below," Ray said, while referring to the country’s 7th President Joko Widodo.

He further pointed out that this situation presents a major challenge for Golkar, which may need to find a new figure closer to the mass base and capable of facing challenges in the 2029 Election. Nevertheless, Ray believes that factors like "political alliances" and financial power will play a significant role in determining who will lead the party.

Additionally, Ray highlighted tensions among senior figures in Golkar, such as Jusuf Kalla and Akbar Tanjung, who feel sidelined by the current leadership.

"Jusuf Kalla does not support Bahlil , while Bahlil leadership is mainly supported by Ginanjar Kartasasmita with strong base from West Java, which might not be as politically powerful as other bases," he added.

With these complex internal dynamics, Golkar must quickly find a leader who can restore the party's prominence while adapting to the changing political landscape.

Extraordinary congress

A Golkar politician close to Airlangga Hartarto, former Golkar chairman, said that they are consolidating for the Munaslub.

"The Munaslub is something we're working on," the source said, emphasizing that the push for it is still ongoing despite the challenges. "It's difficult for Bahlil. What’s he doing there? He’s inhumane, just brutal, like hitting a woman. He’s reckless. Only big figures like (President) Prabowo Subianto can intimidate him," he continued, referring to the current leadership struggle involving Bahlil Lahadalia, the current Golkar chairman.

Meanwhile, the Golkar politician pointed at the uncertainty surrounding the potential timing for the Munaslub.

"If Prabowo agrees, it’ll happen and Bahlil will be replaced. If Prabowo doesn’t agree, it’ll be hard for us. If he backs Bahlil, it’s dangerous for us, we’ll lose," he said, while underscoring how the support of President Prabowo will significantly influence the party’s direction.

He, however, dismissed rumors that Prabowo had endorsed other potential candidates like Bambang Soesetyo and Nusron Wahid, stating, "That's not true. Actually, our task now is to pressure Prabowo to replace Bahlil. His dislike for Bahlil is considerable, and it's already becoming a snowball effect. We’re going to keep pushing."

Previously, a Gerindra Party politician told Indonesia Business Post that the situation in Golkar is evolving rapidly as factions within the party move toward a leadership change.

"After the proper testing process for the TNI Commander in August, everything will be cleaned up. Bahlil is done," the Gerindra politician stated, alluding to the strategic maneuvers taking place in Golkar.

The statement also indicated that figures such as Bambang Soesetyo and Nusron Wahid could be nominated as potential replacements, signaling a shift in the party’s leadership.

The source emphasized that while there is resistance from Bahlil's camp, his influence is weakening due to his reliance on Jokowi’s support and his weak political network.

"Bahlil rose because of Jokowi. He’s from the village, his time in Jakarta was just after HIPMI (Indonesian Young Entrepreneurs Association ," the politician remarked, criticizing Bahlil’s rise to power despite lacking the necessary experience and connections in the political arena.

As for the likelihood of the Munaslub happening in October, the Gerindra politician was firm. "The congress is in October. Bahlil will be sidelined," he said, suggesting that factions within Golkar, including those aligned with Prabowo, are pushing for a change in leadership to strengthen the party's position ahead of the 2029 elections.

In addition to internal Golkar dynamics, the source pointed out that Prabowo's efforts to distance himself from Jokowi's influence are part of a broader political shift.

"Prabowo is slowly cleaning things up. He’s testing the waters with Gibran and other figures," the source explained, highlighting the evolving relationship between Prabowo and Jokowi.

While figures like Bambang Soesetyo are seen as more financially powerful, Nusron Wahid’s political maneuvering could make him a stronger contender for the top position in Golkar.

"Nusron is more of a bandit, but he has a lot of influence," the politician added, noting the internal competition that will shape the future of Golkar.

The Gerindra politician also hinted at broader implications for Golkar, suggesting that a change in leadership could be part of a larger strategy to challenge figures like Gibran, especially as political tensions rise.

"Golkar will be cleaned up, and if Prabowo decides to push for Gibran's impeachment, that will be the end for him," he added.