A market analyst has challenged the accuracy of the 5.12 percent year-on-year (yoy) growth of Indonesia’s economy in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025 as reported by Statistics Indonesia (BPS), asking whether this growth is truly reflected in the daily lives of ordinary citizens.

Head of Macroeconomics and Market Research at Permata Bank, Faisal Rachman, cited that household consumption was a key driver of Q2 growth, expanding by 4.97 percent yoy and contributing 54.25 percent to the economy.

This consumption boost, however, was primarily fueled by middle- to upper-income groups, particularly in transportation and dining sectors.

“As a result, if we look at day-to-day conditions, this growth isn’t necessarily visible. The so-called ‘Rojali and Rohana phenomenon’ is not reflected here,” Faisal said during the Virtual Media Briefing of the PIER Economic Review: First Semester 2025 on Monday, August 11, 2025.

Household consumption slightly increased from 4.95 percent in Q1 to 4.97 percent in Q2, despite signs of weakening in indicators such as the retail sales index, consumer confidence, and automotive sales. Faisal identified three main factors driving the rise:

Food and beverages − Consumption grew by 6.15 percent, supported by holiday-related demand spikes during Idul Fitri in early April, Idul Adha in June, and school holidays.

Transportation and communication − Growth in this sector climbed from 6.15 percent to 6.48 percent, in line with increased travel and mobility during the holiday season.

Restaurants and hotels − Year-on-year growth rose from 6.02 percent to 6.77 percent, boosted by leisure, tourism, and recreational activities.

According to Faisal, while the economic data points to solid growth, the benefits are concentrated among higher-income groups, leaving the middle- and lower-income segments less impacted in their day-to-day experience.