The strengthening of large-cap banking stock prices in recent weeks is seen as a follow-up to Indonesian Central Bank (BI) policy, which reaffirmed its commitment to increasing liquidity in the financial sector.

Market participants believe this sentiment has been building for a long time, but the additional boost from government stimulus has accelerated the strengthening.

Capital market analysts believe BI's move is one of the main factors providing room for appreciation for large bank stocks.

"With BI's liquidity commitment, the benefits to large-cap banking stock prices are starting to become apparent. In fact, this sentiment has been priced in from the start," M. Nafan Aji Gusta, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities told Indonesia Business Post on Thursday, November 20, 2025.

Furthermore, the government previously disbursedRp200 trillion (US$11.9 billion) in stimulus to the banking sector, particularly the State-Owned Banks (Himbara). This additional liquidity is said to have strengthened banking stock prices, which are now testing major resistance levels. Some banks have even begun attempting to break through these technical levels, such as PT Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI).

According to Nafan, the current banking price movement trend is in a major sideways phase, after previously going through a markdown phase. "I hope this momentum changes into a major accumulation phase," he said.

In the medium to long term, the outlook for BNI shares is still considered positive. If the price hasn't broken through resistance, an averaging down strategy is still considered relevant.

Although banking stock prices have strengthened, credit growth performance is said to remain sluggish towards the end of the year. This condition is considered to have the potential to suboptimally reflect banks' financial reports. Nevertheless, the market still sees opportunities for upside amid the prospect of improving credit demand in a looser interest rate climate.

The strengthening of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) also provides external support. The IHSG is currently in a bullish consolidation phase, which has the potential to extend the upward trend if the consolidation continues.

In contrast to the banking sector, property sector shares have tended to stagnate. The high BI rate continues to restrain demand for mortgage (KPR), so property demand has not shown significant improvement.

"Property stock prices remain on the defensive. Sluggish credit, particularly mortgages, is a major factor. The middle class has also not fully recovered since the pandemic, thus hampering demand," Nafan said.

Property businesses and supporting sectors such as the telecommunications are starting to feel optimistic for the end of this year and early next year. However, recovery is expected to be slower than in the financial sector.

If Bank Indonesia considers easing monetary policy in the coming period, demand in the property sector could potentially be boosted. However, market sentiment is still not strong enough to drive up share prices of property issuers.

Maintaining stability

BI Governor Perry Warjiyo is said to have maintained an optimistic tone on various occasions. This stance is seen as part of BI's institutional role as a state actor in maintaining market calm amidst global uncertainty.

"Pak Perry is indeed optimistic. That's part of his role in maintaining stability," Nafan said.

With fourth-quarter economic growth projected at around 5.5 percent, the market hopes that the policy mix between BI and the government can maintain the recovery momentum, particularly in sectors that are still struggling.