Bp Chief Economist, Spencer Dale, says global energy transition remains slow, with oil and gas expected to play a central role in the world’s energy supply for at least the next 15 years. 

Addressing the Bp Energy Outlook 2025 in Jakarta on Friday, October 10, 2025, Dale noted that the pace of global decarbonization continues to lag behind targets consistent with the Paris Agreement, with carbon emissions projected to fall only around 25 percent by 2050 under current policies.

“This is a very slow decarbonization pathway. It is not consistent with meeting the Paris climate goals,” he said.

Bp’s Energy Outlook presents two key scenarios: a current trajectory scenario reflecting existing and pledged government policies, and a below two degrees scenario that would require a 90 percent cut in global carbon emissions by 2050.

Dale emphasized that neither scenario is a prediction but a tool to explore the range of possible energy futures.

Despite uncertainty about the speed of the transition, Dale said oil demand will remain broadly stable over the next decade.

“Oil demand is likely to stay around 100 million barrels per day until 2035 before gradually declining to about 85 million barrels a day by 2050. Maintaining supply at that level will require hundreds of billions of dollars of investment every year,” Dale cited.

He also underscored that while renewables such as wind and solar are growing exponentially in both scenarios, fossil fuels will continue to dominate global energy systems in the medium term.

In his remarks, Dale praised Indonesia’s growing importance in BP’s global operations, particularly the company’s projects in Papua.

“Indonesia has a special place in bp’s heart. We are proud not only of our role in producing energy for Indonesia and supporting exports, but also in transforming Papua bringing electricity and creating jobs for local communities. Over 70 percent of our workforce there are Papuans,” he said.

Dale said bp remains committed to supporting Indonesia’s energy transition agenda, noting that the country will play a pivotal role in shaping the regional energy landscape. “I’m very proud to be here,” he noted.

“Our work in Indonesia shows that energy development and social progress can go hand in hand.”

Bp’s Energy Outlook 2025 also highlights growing geopolitical tensions and market fragmentation as major risks to global energy stability. The report warns that competing industrial policies and fragmented supply chains could slow investment in low-carbon technologies, complicating efforts to accelerate the transition to clean energy.

Dale concluded by inviting Indonesian stakeholders to continue the dialogue on how to balance energy security, affordability, and sustainability. “We can’t predict the future, but by understanding the trends, we can make better decisions together,” he said.