The government’s Rp16 trillion (US$985 million) stimulus package has drawn cautious responses from economists, who say the measures may help prevent further slowdown but are unlikely to deliver the ambitious growth target of 5.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef), Eko Listiyanto, described the package as “moderate” in scale and reactive in nature, arguing that it was designed more to appease recent public discontent than to address structural weaknesses in the economy.

“The programs mostly target the lower-income groups and the informal sector. The middle class, which usually drives consumption, is still under-targeted,” Eko told Indonesia Business Post on Wednesday, October 1. 2025.

“This package is more about preventing growth from slipping below 5 percent than accelerating it to 5.5 percent as planned,” he cited.

Echoing a more tempered optimism, Mohammad Faisal, an economist at the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia, said the combined impact of fiscal and monetary easing should support stronger performance in the year-end period.

“Given the recent policies, both fiscal and monetary, which are moving in a more accommodative direction, the fourth quarter should look better compared to the first quarter,” Faisal spoke to the Post on Thursday, October 2, 2025.

“Household consumption will likely get a lift, though investment may not see much additional momentum as it was already high in the second quarter,” he said.

Faisal projected third-quarter growth at 4.8–4.9 percent, with the fourth quarter potentially edging between 4.9–5.0 percent. “The stimulus will at least provide a slight boost, but we should be cautious about overestimating its effect,” Faisal added.

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has confirmed that the stimulus would not rely on new spending but instead on reallocating existing budget items deemed less urgent. “If there are sectors that cannot spend their allocations this year, we will shift the funds,” Purbaya said on Wednesday, October 1, 2025.

Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto noted that the total budget requirement for the stimulus was still under discussion, though the package has been structured around eight acceleration programs, four extended programs for 2026, and five job absorption initiatives.

Programs range from stipends for fresh graduates and food aid for 18.3 million households to tax breaks for tourism workers and cash-for-work schemes. The government hopes these measures will bolster purchasing power and ease pressure on households amid global uncertainties.

Still, analysts warn that the impact of such programs depends heavily on execution. “Implementation is not easy, and there’s a real risk that benefits won’t fully reach the intended groups,” Eko said.