The rupiah continued its downward trajectory against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, September 25, 2025, with analysts warning the local currency could soon breach the symbolic Rp17,000 mark if pressures persist.
Ibrahim Assuaibi, an economist specializing in currency and commodities, said the rupiah is nearing a critical threshold. “If it breaks Rp16,800, there is a strong likelihood that in October the rupiah could weaken to Rp17,000 per U.S. dollar,” he said in a statement on Thursday.
The market appears to be inching closer to that scenario. Several Indonesian banks were already offering the greenback at nearly Rp16,900, while online rates across major lenders hovered in the Rp16,700 range.
OCBC NISP posted the highest selling rate, offering dollars at Rp16,855, followed by Bank Sinarmas at Rp16,795.
The following are the selling and buying rates listed by several banks on September 25:
- BCA (e-Rate): Buy Rp16,740 / Sell Rp16,760
- BRI (e-Rate): Buy Rp16,598 / Sell Rp16,799
- BNI (Special Rate): Buy Rp16,740 / Sell Rp16,775
- Mandiri (Special Rate): Buy Rp16,705 / Sell Rp16,745
- OCBC NISP (Bank Notes): Buy Rp16,578 / Sell Rp16,855
- Bank Sinarmas: Buy Rp16,695 / Sell Rp16,795
The rupiah’s sustained weakness reflects persistent global pressures, including a strong U.S. dollar index, elevated US Treasury yields, and ongoing capital outflows from emerging markets.
Ibrahim cautioned that without decisive intervention, October could mark a psychologically important shift in the rupiah’s trading band.
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