Indonesia will hold the general elections on February 14, 2024. The General Elections Commission (KPU) recorded in the first half of 2022 that there would be 190,022,169 voters nationwide.

Based on a survey by Kompas R&D released on October 26, 2022, Central Java Governor Ganjar had the electability of 23.2%, compared to Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs and Golkar Party chairman Airlangga with a mere 0.5%.

"However, there has been no agreement regarding who will become the [KIB] presidential and vice presidential candidates. It is about preserving Golkar Party's dignity. Golkar is avoiding having their chairman become vice president," a source told Indonesia Business Post on November 17, 2022.

Building a coalition with rivaling parties

Political analyst Emrus Sihombing of the Pelita Harapan University said that Ganjar and Airlangga would be a good pair of candidates. However, he noted that the coalition supporting the pair should not only consist of Golkar Party, PAN and PPP, but should also include the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).

"The Ganjar-Airlangga candidate pair is a very good and qualified pair that will garner political supports from various  elements in the society, social figures, political parties. They will become a strong candidate," he explained.

The reason, he said, was the pair and supporting parties were a combination of nationalist-religious political power in Indonesia. If an alliance could be established, it could attract and reap votes from the people.

"I predict that the Ganjar-Airlangga pair can win the election in first round, even if there were two or three pairs of candidates. Whoever their opponents are, it is likely that they [Ganjar and Airlangga] will win," he added.

Bargaining chips

Sihombing suggested PPP, PAN and PKS to support the Ganjar-Airlangga pair as they could not propose their cadres to become presidential and vice presidential candidates. However, political parties can bargain to share the positions of coordinating ministers and other strategic ministerial posts in the cabinet in exchange of their support for the candidates.

"That [the ministerial post] is the bargain from those political parties. Other agreement is the legislative products that will benefit the cause of religious-nationalist camp. There is no need for them to put their cadres as presidential or vice presidential candidates. Those parties can still get the positions coordinating ministers and strategic ministers," he explained.