The new and renewable energy (EBT) target set in the 2024-2060 National Electricity General Plan (RUKN) of 75.6 gigawatts (GW) by 2035 requires acceleration of solar and wind energy through strategic planning and close monitoring. By doing so, prospective projects with a total capacity of 45 gigawatts (GW), as recorded by the Global Energy Monitor (GEM), can be realised and ensure Indonesia reaches its clean energy development target on time.

A recent report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) puts solar power as the best option to ensure the 75 GW target is reached ahead of schedule. Of the 45 GW, there are at least 16.5 GW of prospective solar projects in Indonesia − more than five times higher than the 3.1 GW outlined in the Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan for Indonesia's Just Energy Transition Partnership (CIPP-JETP), and 30 percent higher than the 2030 RUKN target of 12.8 GW. Given the experience of Vietnam and China, Indonesia still has time to pursue more solar energy projects before 2030-2035.

"Getting these prospective projects launched and monitored, and possibly accelerating their development, would quadruple Indonesia's renewable energy capacity over the next decade, surpassing the target set in the RUKN by 2030, and ensuring Indonesia achieves its target in later years as renewable development gains continue to accelerate," Katherine Hasan, CREA Analyst and co-author of the analysis, said as quoted in a statement on Tuesday, February 4, 2025.

For wind energy, there is a gap to be filled, given that the prospective projects recorded by GEM are only 2.5 GW-lower than the 4.8 GW of capacity targeted by 2030 in the RUKN. The gap between wind power potential and cost-optimised deployment is even larger and more pressing. For this reason, Indonesia needs to put more effort into wind power development and create an investment climate that can attract the needed financing.

"By mapping out which solar and wind projects can realistically be implemented before 2030, Indonesia will exceed the targets currently outlined in the RUKN," Katherine cited.

Meanwhile, the 45 GW of prospective projects have entered the construction, pre-construction, and announcement stages. However, only 30.6 GW of them have been scheduled to start. The other 13.6 GW, which includes 10.7 GW of solar energy, 1.8 GW of wind energy, and 1.1 GW of geothermal energy, still need to have their start dates set. 

The realization of these projects will increase Indonesia's power generation capacity to 58.5 GW or 77 percent of the RUKN target of 75.6 GW by 2035, the analysis said.

Beyond that, to achieve the 2035 RUKN target of 13.5 GW of current capacity, Indonesia still needs an additional 18 GW, which needs to be prioritized for immediate inclusion in national planning, it suggested.

Fossil-free energy

CREA also considers that the portion of fossil energy in the RUKN is still significant. Despite President Prabowo's 2040 fossil-free vision, the RUKN 2024-2060 outlines electricity production from coal-based power plants at 41 percent and gas at 17 percent, to meet energy demand of 1,140 TWh in 2040 − and, in fact, only 36 percent from renewable energy sources. By 2060, the share of renewable energy is targeted to reach 50 percent, with the remainder coming from nuclear, biomass co-firing and gas-fired power plants, both equipped with carbon capture technology (CCS).

This contrasts with the cost-effective, fossil energy-free scenario modelled in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which excludes all fossil-based power generation, ammonia, hydrogen and ocean energy. IPCC reports assess the impacts of climate change on nature and people, considering the vulnerability and capacity of Earth's ecosystems to adapt to climate change.

"Compared to the cost-effective pathway modelled in the IPCC AR6 report for a fossil-free Indonesian electricity system by 2060, the RUKN severely underinvests in variable renewable energy like solar and wind, and overinvests in solutions that are more expensive and slower to deploy. This could hamper President Prabowo's fossil-free vision, and limit clean energy investment opportunities during the decisive decades," Lauri Myllyvirta, CREA Principal Analyst and co-author of this analysis, concluded.