Thousands of people gathered at the At-Tin Mosque in the Taman Mini Indonesia Indah complex for a 212 Alumni Reunion organized by an Islamist group Brotherhood of 212 Alumni on December 2, 2022. Yusuf Muhammad Martak, Chairman of the 212 Alumni Brotherhood Syuro Council (PA), attended the gathering as well as spiritual leaders from the Islamic Brotherhood Front, previously known as Islam Defenders Front (FPI).    

No political agenda

Bamukmin said that the 2022 reunion of the 212 alumni had no political objective as there were no politicians and presidential or vice presidential candidates attending the event. Since its establishment in 2016, the Brotherhood of the 212 Alumni was to carry out an action to defend Islam against blasphemy.

"We are against whoever insulted Islam, not only Ahok [then Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama]. Those who insults Islam should be punished with the most severe punishment as regulated by Indonesian law," he told Indonesia Business Post on December 6, 2022.

On December 2, 2016, hundreds of thousands of Muslims gathered at the National Monument under the leadership of FPI leader Rizieq Shihab, demanding for a legal process against Ahok, a Christian and Chinese descendant. They considered Ahok as insulting Islam. Ahok was jailed for blasphemy on May 9, 2017, days after he lost in the Jakarta gubernatorial election to Anies Baswedan. 

Bamukmin explained that during the Jakarta election in 2017, there were three candidates, namely Ahok, Anies and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono. "We had to take our position. We called on Muslims to vote for leader who has faith and obeys God and a candidate who is not part of the religious blasphemer," he said, adding that after 2017, the Brotherhood did not involve in politic.

However in 2019, the group was involved in politic again due to the general elections which saw a polarized parties between President-elect Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and now defense minister Prabowo Subianto.

The group skipped a reunion event in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, they held a national dialog involving 100 national figures in Bekasi, West Java.

Preparation for 2024 elections

Bamukmin said that starting in 2023, the group would take a position to give guidance for Muslims in electing presidential and vice presidential candidates in the 2024 elections. The candidates, he said, should meet some of the requirements set by the group.

"A candidate who will be supported by Muslims must meet 4 criteria: must be close to the people, follow the sunna of Prophet Muhammad, must be honest, smart, can be trusted and must deliver the revelation of God," he said. He added that such leader would not betray the people, maintain the state ideology of Pancasila and the motto of Unity in Diversity.

However, Bamukmin refused to say if presidential candidates such as Anies, Prabowo and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo met with the criteria and requirements. "Until now, I cannot identify one of them. There will be an Ijtema Ulama (dialog of clerics), which will decide which candidate will be supported in the 2024 elections after the General Election Commission (KPU) officially declare the presidential and vice presidential candidates," he explained.

He believes that the Brotherhood of 212 Alumni will repeat its 2016 success in mobilizing voters and supports for a candidate as long as the ruling government does not deflate the movement. "If the government does not criminalize clerics and 212 activists, there is a possibility to repeat the 2016 success. However, they have started to threaten and deflate the movement by criminalizing Rizieq Shihab and people around him," he added.

They also make it difficult for Muslims from other provinces to enter Jakarta. They prevented them and sent them back home. "But, we are still optimistic that in 2023, when Indonesia is in multidimensional crisis, we can change the regime and the system," Bamukmin said.

Finding an issue to unite the public

Emrus Sihombing, political analyst from Pelita Harapan University, said the 212 Alumni reunion was only a nostalgic event when they gathered and staged a protest. By having a reunion, supporters of 212 movement can interact with each other and strengthen their relationship and solidity .

"There was a discussion or communication and exchange of ideas so they can increase their solidarity among them in the context of their social struggle," he added.

The scale of their influence and political power, according to Sihombing, will depend on the issues that they deliver to the public. The issue should gain the public's sympathy and supports.

He said that religious issues could be interesting for developing countries. However, in advanced nations with rational thinking, religious issue is not dominant. "In advanced nations, the main issues [for elections] will be [the candidates'] programs. But in developing countries, religion is a 'sexy' issue to secure supports from the people," he said.

Security analyst Stanislaus Riyanta said the Brotherhood of 212 Alumni had no significant issue that could unite and garner supports like what they did in 2017. "They are looking for an issue that they can play," he added.

Intelligence analyst Ridlwan Habib said it would be difficult for the Islamist group to garner broad supports because the majority of candidates are Muslims. "I think they have lost the momentum. Although traditionally they have huge numbers, but they have lost the momentum because the absent of common enemy," he explained.

Supports for a certain candidate

Sihombing said so far there has been no indication if the Brotherhood of 212 Alumni would support Anies or Prabowo. It would all depend on their under the table negotiation.

"Supporting a candidate will depend on the agreement between supporters and the candidates," he explained.

Traditionally, the group has a tendency to support political Islam groups. So far, political Islam group has shown their supports for one figure, which is Anies. "There is a possibility that they will consolidate to support Anies. However, it is too early to predict," he concluded.